Global Warming Prediction Project
Global Warming Prediction Project
What drives climate in the long run? A new paper
08.10.2012
A new paper by Seifert and Lemke has been published that opens a new and wider view on which forces drive our climate in the long perspective. They show that cyclic cosmic processes, which have not been considered in the established climate models at all, play in fact a key role. Our life is determined by day and night, the seasons, or the moon phases, which are all cosmic cycles. These cosmic cycles are so present and self-evident for us that we don‘t spend a second of time on questioning or realizing this fact.
But there are other cosmic cycles that also drive our climate. One most important is the Earth Orbit Oscillation (EOO). The Earth orbits the planets system center of mass not in a plain ellipsoidal surface but in a three-dimensional, rising and shrinking spiral flight due to the influence of other cosmic cycles known as Milankovitch cycles and the motion of the sun (Solar Inertial Motion), which not sits fixed in the center of our planetary system. As the Earth oscillates in its orbital flight around the center of mass, the Earth-Sun distance oscillates too. Over the time frame of several hundred years the Earth, therefore, accumulates more or less solar energy, which results in swinging, corresponding warming and cooling climatic changes on Earth including glaciation. The variation in solar energy received on Earth by EOO is much higher than the Sun‘s own variation of solar irradiance emitted over the known sun cycles (for example, the 11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle).
A second major source of climate change is, as always, chance, namely stochastic cosmic impacts hitting planet Earth. The paper shows that these impacts also influence the orbital flight of the Earth resulting in a characteristic pattern of cooling, warming, and stabilization of global temperatures. The figure shows this cosmic impact pattern along with the Earth Orbit Oscillation curve on paleo-climatic temperature reconstructions (ice core; Greenland Ice Sheet Project GISP2) for the time period 37k - 27k yrs BP.
The abstract of the paper:
Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change
„We identify five macro-climatic mechanisms in our study that govern a long time span of 20,000 years. The state of the art in climate-forcing mechanism analysis is that presently available General Circulation Models (GCMs) underperform substantially in terms of predictive power. It is evaluated in the literature that all GCMs perform well for the first 500 years backwards from the present, but then lack skill for the previous 9,500 Holocene years. It is critical for climate models, however, that they also show their validity on time frames of more than 1,000 years.
The presented climate-forcing study proceeds with the selection of 10,000 years of the entire Holocene interglacial and, for comparison, of another 10,000 years of a purely glacial time span (37,000-27,000 BP) from the GISP2 data. It considers the effects of Milankovitch cycles, atmospheric CO2-concentrations, Solar Inertial Motions (SIM), the retrograde tri-synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle, and of two major mechanisms, the Earth Orbit Oscillation (EOO) and the Cosmic Impact Oscillation (CIO). Detailed mechanisms for both oscillations are provided; their calculation methods are pointed out.
Concluding the study, we zoom in onto EOO and CIO forcing of the past 3,000 years and provide an outlook onto forcing mechanisms, which are expected to act within the future 500 years. The GISP2 proxy temperature curve and macro-forcing mechanisms are compared to the Hockey Stick temperature evolution pattern.
Details of demonstrated astro-climatic relations are as of today, 2012, new and original climate change knowledge. The IPCC has not been able to provide supplementary data on cycle mechanics. The identification of 5 macro-climatic drivers, missing in current GCMs, unmistakably proves that climate science is not settled yet. One missing driver may be excused, but not five. The notion of ,The science is settled‘, upheld since the days of Galileo, is a spiritual relict of the past. All GCMs will be rectified soon.“
A PDF summary of the paper can be downloaded here.